GDP growth for FY2026 revised to 3.65pc; industry shrinks in last quarter

ISLAMABAD: The National Accounts Committee (NAC) has revised the economic growth rate for fiscal year 2025-26 slightly downwards to 3.65 per cent. In May 2026, the government had put the estimate at 3.70 per cent, and before that at 4 per cent. The committee held its 118th meeting on Monday at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.

The economy fell short of the target. The government attributed the lower growth to a slowdown in industry and services.

According to the revised figures, Agriculture grew by 3.50 per cent, industry by 3.34 per cent and services by 3.81 per cent. The earlier estimates were 2.89, 3.51 and 4.09 per cent respectively.

The size of the economy rose from $410.96 billion last year to $450.4 billion. Services made up the largest share, followed by industry and livestock. Per capita income rose from $1,824 to $1,896, which according to reports is the lowest in the region. It was $1,551 in FY2023, $1,766 in 2022 and $1,677 in 2021.

The committee approved growth of 3.89, 4.31 and 4.42 per cent for the first three quarters respectively. These differ from the 3.92, 4.05 and 3.99 per cent presented at the 117th meeting. Growth for FY2025 was revised down from 3.18 per cent to 3.11 per cent.

Growth in the last quarter, from April to June, was 2 per cent. The Bureau of Statistics said in a statement that growth was modest because of the high base of 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY2025. In this quarter, Agriculture grew by 3.7 per cent, while industry shrank by 4.7 per cent. The electricity, gas and water supply sector contracted by 33.2 per cent, while construction grew by 3.52 per cent.

The committee also approved a revision of import figures for FY2021 to FY2025. According to The Express Tribune, this added $14.8 billion to total imports over the five years. The change was made on the basis of differences between the data of the Bureau of Statistics and the Pakistan Single Window.

The IMF had projected growth of 3.6 per cent for FY2026, while the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank had projected 3.7 per cent. The State Bank also expects growth close to 3.7 per cent.